The Energy Consulting Group

A consultancy focused on the upstream oil and gas industry, and specializing in the development of fact based business strategies for E&P companies and service firms.

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Our focus is to develop and implement strategies that are practical, sustainable and allow organizations to achieve their full potential. Our consultants have long histories of working closely with senior executive teams of firms of all sizes to help their companies not only be successful, but achieve performance that stands out relative to peers.
Contact Bill at insight@energy-cg.com to find out how we can help you.
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Maps and Graphs Illustrating the Crisis in Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict is centered on the differences between the eurocentric area in western Ukraine, and the Russian centric area in the eastern Ukraine. These differences were dramatically illustrated when the Russian friendly prime minister was deposed by pro-European protestors in early 2014. Concerns over this change in political leadership, lead Russia to annex the Crimea, and to support a rebellion by eastern Ukraine provinces with majority pro-Russian populations.


Russia Accidentally Reveals Its Massive Ukraine Body Count
 
Ukraine Civil War: Pre-Crisis Base Map


ukraine base map
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Ukraine Civil War:  Approximate Route of Major Pipelines Transiting Russian Natural Gas From Western Siberia to Europe

ukraine: russian natural gas pipelines
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Ukraine Civil War:  Pre-Conflict Map Showing The Primary Oil and Gas Producing Areas in the Ukraines. 
Also shown are the nascent shale development blocks.  The two shale blocks are Yuzovsky (Shell) and Olesska (Chevron)
ukraine: oil and gas fields map, olesska, yuzovsky shale blocks
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Map illustrating the Ukraine before Russian annexation of the Crimea.  We created this map to provide perspective on where Ukrainian oil and gas regions are in relation to the rest of the Ukraine.  The primary onshore oil and gas productive regions are the Dneiper-Donetsk  and Pre-Carpathian Basins.  The primary offshore area, and the one most prospective for new, large conventional oil and gas reserves, is the Black Sea-Crimea Basin.  Also presented on the map are the two large shale gas concessions previously awarded by the Ukrainian government:  Olesska awarded to Chevron, and Yuzovsky awarded to Shell.

The Ukraine is a net importer of both oil and gas.  Per the BP statistical survey, precrisis Ukraine produced about 50 MBOPD of oil and consumed about 290 MBOPD, making it a net importer of approx. 240 MBOPD.  It imported most of this oil from Russia.  Again, per the BP statistical survey, the precrisis Ukraine produced about 1.8 BCFD of natural gas, and consumed between 5-6 BCFD, making it a net importer of between 3.2 - 4.2 BCFD.  Almost all of this imported gas was sourced from Russia. The importance of the gas volumes for both residential and industrial use is the primary reason the Ukrainian government was aggressively seeking to expand domestic production through deepwater exploration and shale gas development.
   

 

Ukraine Civil War:  Ukranian Domestic Natural Gas Productiona and Consumption
Ukraine: Natural Gas production/consumption
Ukraine Civil War:  Ukrainian Domestic Oil Production and Consumption
Ukraine: Oil Production/Consumption

The crisis in the Ukraine is obviously a humanitarian disaster, but it also threatens the Ukrainian government strategy of making the country less dependent upon Russia for its energy needs.  As the below map illustrates,  the annexation of the Crimea essentially transfered the most promising conventional oil and gas region from the Ukraine to Russia, and the separatist movement in the eastern Ukraine threatens the Yuzovsky shale gas license.  Indeed,Shell citing the violence in eastern Ukrain,  has already suspended operations in the Yuzovsky license area.

Ukraine Civil War: Pre-Crisis Map of Black Sea Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
Ukraine Map: Black Sea pre-crisis Exclusive economic zones (Ukraine, Russia,  Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria)
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Ukraine Civil War:  Pre-conflict Ukraine Black Sea Oil and Gas Situation

Ukraine Map: pre-crisis Black Sea oil and gas concessions, Crimea Basin
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Ukraine Civil War:  More Than Just Land
Potentially Reshaped Black Sea Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) Post Crimea Annexation
Ukraine Map: Black Sea oil and gas concessions after Crimea Annexation
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By annexing Crimea, Russia not only gains Crimea's land area, but adds large tracts of promising oil and gas acreage  via Crimea's offshore rights.  Assuming the Crimea annexation holds up over time, Russia's Black Sea Exclusive Economic Zone would at least double, and encompass some of the most prospective oil and gas areas in the Black Sea, i.e. the deep water regions to the south of Crimea.  These areas are on trend with the multi-TCF Domino discovery in Romanian waters to the west.

Europe beyond the Ukraine is also exposed to the crisis.  The primary vulnerability is the potential for disruptions to Russian gas flows.  Europe gets about 35% of its gas from Russia, with about 50% of that transiting the Ukraine.  The  degree of dependncy varies depending on the distance from Russia, As illustrated by the map below, the countries, several eastern European countries depend upon Russian gas for over 50% of energy needs.

Sources of Imported Natural Gas For Europe
Ukraine Crisis:  Graph showing european dependence upone Russia for gas
Sources of Natural Gas By Country
Ukraine Crisis: map showing source of natural gas by country

Pre-Crisis Ukraine
Russian Aspirations for Ukrainian Territory
Ukraine: Novorissiya, Russian Natural Gas Pipelines

Click on the figures for a higher resolution version of the images.

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