IEA OMR Highlights - December 2014
- Oil's rout gained momentum in October and extended into
November, with Brent at a four-year low below $80/bbl. A
strong US dollar and rising US light tight oil output outweighed the
impact of a Libyan supply disruption. ICE Brent was last trading at
$78.50/bbl - down 30% from a June peak. NYMEX WTI was at $75.40/bbl.
- Global oil supply inched up by 35 kb/d in October to
94.2 mb/d. Compared with one year ago, total supply was
2.7 mb/d higher as higher OPEC production added to non-OPEC supply
growth of 1.8 mb/d. Non-OPEC production growth is forecast to ease
to 1.3 mb/d for 2015 from this year's 1.8 mb/d high.
- OPEC output eased by 150 kb/d in October to 30.60 mb/d,
remaining well above the group's official 30 mb/d supply target for
a sixth month running. The group's oil ministers meet on 27 November
against the backdrop of a 30% price decline since they last gathered
in June.
- Global oil demand estimates for 2014 and 2015 are
unchanged since last month's Report, at 92.4 mb/d and
93.6 mb/d, respectively. Projected growth will increase
from a five-year annual low of 680 kb/d in 2014 to an estimated
1.1 mb/d next year as the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to
improve.
- OECD industry oil stocks built counter-seasonally by
12.6 mb in September. Their deficit versus average levels,
after ballooning earlier this year, fell to its narrowest since
April 2013. Preliminary data show that despite a 4.2 mb draw, stocks
swung into a surplus to average levels in October for the first time
since March 2013.
- Global refinery crude demand hit a seasonal low in
October amid peak plant maintenance and seasonally weak
product demand. The 4Q14 throughput estimate is largely unchanged
since last month's Report, at 77.5 mb/d, as robust Russian
and Chinese throughputs offset a steeper-than-expected drop in US
runs in October.